Artificial intelligence will fundamentally alter the way work is performed in 50% to 55% of U.S. jobs over the next two to three years, according to a new analysis from Boston Consulting Group (BCG). Researchers described this 'reshaping' as AI materially changing daily tasks in roles that largely persist, with augmentation outweighing outright replacement.

The BCG study examined government labor data on 1,500 occupations to categorize jobs into six segments based on AI's potential impact: amplified, rebalanced, enabled, divergent, substituted, and insulated. In amplified and rebalanced roles, AI boosts productivity by handling repetitive tasks, allowing workers to focus on higher-value activities. Enabled jobs see over 25% of tasks automated, embedding AI into routines and raising productivity expectations. Divergent and substituted categories face higher risks, where entry-level positions may shrink while senior roles expand, potentially leading to 10% to 15% of jobs being eliminated over the next five years.

'What people do in these jobs will be different, even if the job is still there,' said Matthew Kropp, BCG managing director and senior partner. He cautioned against knee-jerk layoffs, noting, 'There's almost a knee-jerk reaction, we'll cut jobs [and have layoffs]. It's indiscriminate, and that's harmful for society because we need people to have jobs, but also harmful for companies themselves.' Kropp advocated for reskilling programs to transition workers into augmented positions.

Certain sectors stand out. Software engineering could see increased demand as AI lowers costs and clears task backlogs, while call center roles may require fewer staff since AI handles routine inquiries more efficiently. Jobs demanding physical presence or great interpersonal skills, such as plumbers or therapists, remain largely insulated.

This projection aligns with broader research. Goldman Sachs estimates AI could automate tasks accounting for 25% of U.S. work hours, displacing 6% to 7% of workers over a decade but creating new roles in infrastructure and AI oversight. Unemployment may rise modestly to 4.5% in 2026 amid these shifts. Early signs include AI-linked tech layoffs surpassing 50,000 in the first three months of 2026, though overall job disruption remains limited.

Experts emphasize upskilling as key to navigating change. BCG urges companies to invest in training and restructure career paths, as skill thresholds rise and cognitive demands intensify. AI's productivity gains could spur demand in some fields, much like unforeseen roles such as social media influencers emerged previously. While challenges loom, the focus remains on adaptation to harness AI's benefits for workers and the economy.