Lawmakers from both parties intensified calls for federal probes into Polymarket after at least 50 newly created accounts placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire hours before President Donald Trump announced it on social media.

The bets targeted a market asking whether the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7. Blockchain data analyzed via the Dune platform showed these anonymous proxy smart contract wallets, some created as recently as 12 minutes before Trump's late Tuesday Truth Social post, wagered heavily on a "Yes" outcome when odds were low. One account bet roughly $72,000 at an average price of 8.8 cents per share, yielding a $200,000 profit. Another, created April 6, won $125,500, while a wallet made 12 minutes prior to the announcement profited an estimated $48,500 from $31,908 in bets. The trades generated hundreds of thousands in total profits for the group, with some payouts pending due to a disputed market resolution.

Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y., a member of the House Financial Services Committee and its digital assets subcommittee, sent a letter Thursday to Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Michael Selig demanding a review. "This pattern raises serious concerns that certain market participants may have had access to material nonpublic information regarding a market-moving geopolitical event," Torres wrote, noting the bets occurred amid Trump's public escalation rhetoric. In an interview, he questioned the odds of non-insider success: "God, or an insider trader. And something tells me that God is not placing bets around Donald Trump’s posts on Truth Social."

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., wrote directly to Polymarket demanding explanations for allowing war-related trades and efforts to prevent insider activity. "Polymarket has become an illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history, and by extension a potential honeypot for foreign intelligence services," he stated. Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, echoed bipartisan worries: "We don’t want to imagine a world where America’s adversaries use prediction markets to anticipate our next move."

At least two bipartisan bills are pending in Congress, one each in the House and Senate, aimed at restricting such platforms. The scrutiny follows prior suspicious activity. In January, an anonymous trader profited $400,000 betting on Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro's ouster hours before his capture. Another account made about $550,000 wagering on a U.S. strike on Iran and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's removal just before the war began. A Harvard study estimated $143 million in potential insider profits across Polymarket events.

Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market banned from the U.S. in 2022, operates mostly offshore but is reentering via a CFTC-licensed acquisition with a limited domestic rollout underway. It has recently strengthened insider trading controls but did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the letters. Competitor Kalshi, already CFTC-regulated, faces similar criticism while expanding into sports betting. Donald Trump Jr. invests in Polymarket through his firm and advises Kalshi.

The CFTC oversees derivatives including prediction markets, but enforcement challenges persist due to blockchain anonymity and cross-border operations. Torres urged the agency to analyze platform data on account linkages and transactions while keeping Congress informed.