The race to succeed term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom has descended into disarray, with eight prominent Democrats competing fiercely but failing to produce a clear leader ahead of the June 2 nonpartisan top-two primary. California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks called on candidates without a "viable path" to victory to drop out, warning that the fragmented field could allow two Republicans to advance to the November general election. No one has stepped aside despite the plea issued around March 3.
Recent polls underscore the lack of a frontrunner. A Global Strategy Group survey from February 27 to March 2 showed Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, at 18 percent, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 15 percent, and Democrat Eric Swalwell at 16 percent, with Katie Porter at 13 percent and Tom Steyer at 10 percent. RealClearPolitics polling averages through February similarly placed Hilton at 15 percent and Bianco at 14.3 percent, ahead of Swalwell at 12 percent and Porter at 11.3 percent, with over 33 percent undecided. A February Public Policy Institute of California survey found five candidates in a virtual tie in the teens.
Under California's top-two primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, and the top two vote-getters advance regardless of party. Republicans have not won a statewide race here since 2006, but Democratic vote-splitting has heightened anxiety within the party. At least nine major Democrats remain in the field, including former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, Rep. Eric Swalwell, ex-Rep. Katie Porter, billionaire Tom Steyer, State Superintendent Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, and former Controller Betty Yee.
Steyer has invested $38 million of his own money, boosting his profile through advertising. Porter, once seen as a top contender, has faced setbacks from viral videos showing her temper. Becerra's campaign has struggled with fundraising and negative headlines tied to a federal probe, though he faces no charges. The state Democratic convention in February failed to endorse anyone.
On the Republican side, Hilton emphasizes tax cuts and tough-on-crime policies, backed by donor Rupert Murdoch. Bianco has law enforcement endorsements. With the primary four months away, the race remains fluid, and voter concerns over housing costs, homelessness, and state-federal tensions dominate discussions.
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