Early voting trends in Virginia are tightening the race over a high-stakes redistricting referendum, with updated data showing stronger Republican turnout compared to previous election cycles.

Voters are set to decide whether to allow the Democrat-controlled state legislature to redraw Virginia’s congressional map, a move that could significantly alter the current 6-5 partisan split in the state’s U.S. House delegation.

Election tracking data indicate that early voting this cycle is roughly three percentage points more Republican-leaning than during the 2025 gubernatorial election, suggesting a shift in turnout dynamics. At the same time, Democrats still maintain a numerical advantage in total ballots cast, with more than 800,000 early votes compared to roughly 550,000 from Republican voters.

Forecasters say the combination of higher Republican engagement and overall Democratic volume could make for a competitive outcome. Polling has shown the measure with a narrow lead, though analysts note that early vote patterns may narrow that margin.

Turnout has been particularly strong in districts represented by Republican Reps. Ben Cline and Morgan Griffith, where early voting increases have outpaced other areas of the state.

Overall participation is also running high for a special election. More than 1.3 million voters had cast ballots ahead of Election Day, approaching totals seen in the 2025 statewide election.

The measure has drawn national attention as part of broader redistricting battles across the country. Gov. Abigail Spanberger has backed the proposal, while former Gov. Glenn Youngkin has campaigned against it.

Polls are scheduled to close Tuesday evening, with the outcome expected to have implications for the balance of power in Virginia’s congressional delegation and potentially beyond.