The Arabian Gulf region, a critical hub for producing nitrogen and phosphate-based fertilizers, is facing severe disruptions that could ripple across global food systems. About 30% of global fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, with the Gulf supplying roughly 34%–35% of urea, 25% of ammonia, and up to 45% of sulfur, essential ingredients for modern agriculture.

Shipping delays caused by conflict have slowed tanker traffic by as much as 75%, stalling exports and curtailing production in countries dependent on Gulf natural gas. The timing is particularly concerning, coinciding with the Northern Hemisphere’s spring planting season, when farmers rely heavily on fertilizers to maximize crop yields.

Market impacts are already visible. Urea prices have surged 30%–40%, and farmers in the U.S. and abroad report difficulty securing sufficient supply. Fertilizer industry leaders warn that prolonged disruptions could reduce crop yields by up to 50% in some regions, threatening staples like wheat, corn, and rice.

Developing nations in Africa and South Asia, which rely on imported fertilizers, are expected to face the greatest hardships, with the U.N. estimating that up to 45 million additional people could experience acute hunger if the situation persists. Adding to the strain, China has imposed export restrictions to protect domestic supply, further reducing global availability.

Experts caution that fertilizer shortages are especially dangerous because, unlike oil, there are no significant stockpiles to buffer disruptions. Production and delivery must align with planting cycles, meaning delays can halt entire food production cycles.

With rising prices, strained supply chains, and a critical planting season underway, the crisis underscores the vulnerability of global food security to conflicts and chokepoints in a small number of key regions. Without intervention or stabilization, the coming months may bring widespread shortages and escalating hunger worldwide.