Hungary’s newly established Tisza party, led by former government insider Peter Magyar, has gained support at the expense of Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ruling Fidesz party, according to a Median poll released Wednesday. The survey indicates that among decided voters, Tisza commands 55%, up from 51% in January, while Fidesz fell to 35% from 39%.

When considering the entire population, Tisza received 42% support, compared with 31% for Fidesz. Median noted that Tisza “has made up for its loss of momentum in the autumn and is once again leading Fidesz with a confidence similar to that of last summer.”

The far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) party also cleared the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation, polling at 6%. Apart from these parties, others are unlikely to gain seats.

Fidesz disputes some polls, highlighting surveys that suggest it could still secure victory in many constituencies, though critics note that these have often been conducted by organizations with ties to the ruling party. Orban recently projected that Fidesz could win in 65–70 of Hungary’s 106 single-member districts, down from 87 in the last election, while still potentially retaining a parliamentary majority.

The April 12 vote marks a crucial test for Orban, who has led Hungary for 16 years. Observers say the outcome may have significant implications for the country’s future political direction and for far-right movements in Europe.