The Internal Revenue Service said Friday that the 2026 tax season, which opened Jan. 26, is off to a strong start, with early average refunds running 10.9% higher than last year. As of Feb. 6, taxpayers receiving refunds averaged $2,290, compared with $2,065 at the same stage in 2025.

Total refunds issued so far exceed $16.9 billion, up 1.9% from a year earlier. Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent previously noted a 22% increase in refunds on CNBC, though the exact comparison period was unclear.

The IRS expects average refund amounts to rise further once payments, including the earned income tax credit and the additional child tax credit, are processed later in the season, as these are subject to federal safeguards to prevent fraud.

Tax policy experts caution that early-season averages can fluctuate. Andrew Lautz of the Bipartisan Policy Center noted that early refund data “can be deceiving” and historically start lower in January before climbing sharply in mid-February. Returns processed later in the season may change the overall averages.

The IRS has received over 1 million fewer returns than at the same point in 2025, though officials expect the gap to close as more taxpayers file. Refunds generally result from overpayment through paycheck withholding or estimated tax payments, while those who underpaid may owe a balance.

The size of refunds has become a political talking point ahead of the midterms. President Donald Trump said 2026 will see the “largest tax refund season of all time,” citing tax breaks enacted under his One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which did not adjust withholding for 2025 changes and could boost refunds for some workers.

Experts emphasize that outcomes will vary depending on individual tax situations and prior-year payments. Historically, average refunds peak before declining slightly as the April 15 filing deadline approaches.