Insider Advantage surveyed 800 likely voters February 17–18, with a margin of error of ±3.46 percent, reporting that Trump’s approval roughly mirrors his national popular vote results from the November 2024 election. Pollster Matt Towery explained that differences between his poll and media surveys showing Trump closer to 40 percent are due to varying methodologies and weighting techniques, noting that firms accurately predicting Trump’s past elections employ similar approaches.

Rasmussen currently shows Trump at 48 percent approval to 51 percent disapproval, while RealClearPolitics’ poll of polls lists him at 42.1 percent approve to 55.2 percent disapprove.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers highlighted Trump’s achievements in response to the polling, citing middle-class tax cuts, executive actions boosting housing affordability, and efforts to lower gas prices, emphasizing that the president is “successfully delivering on his promise to Make America Affordable Again.”

Insider Advantage also demonstrated accuracy during the 2024 election, closely predicting results in five key swing states:

  • Wisconsin: predicted +1 point for Trump; actual +0.9 points.
  • Pennsylvania: predicted +1 point; actual +1.7 points.
  • Michigan: predicted tie; actual +1.4 points,
  • North Carolina: predicted +2 points; actual +3.3 points.
  • Arizona: predicted +3 points; actual +5.5 points.

The poll slightly understated Trump’s support in Nevada, where the firm predicted a tie, and he won by 3.3 points. Analysts note that the president’s internal data likely aligns with these public numbers, consistent with strong economic performance, making a 50 percent approval rating unsurprising.