Crude oil prices plunged below $95 per barrel late Monday, capping a wildly volatile session that saw benchmarks surge above $120 earlier in the day amid fears of prolonged disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
West Texas Intermediate crude for April delivery settled at $94.77 per barrel, up 4.3% for the day but down sharply in after-hours trading to around $87 by 9 p.m. EDT, with intraday lows reaching $81.19. Brent crude for May settled at $98.96, up 6.8%, before dropping below $90 in extended trading, with a daily high of $119.50. The front-month WTI contract swung nearly $28 during the session, the widest range since the pandemic-era negative prices.
The initial rally, which pushed both benchmarks above $100 for the first time in nearly four years, stemmed from escalating conflict disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for about 20% of global oil consumption. Gulf producers curtailed output amid tanker threats and halted shipping: Iraq's production fell 70% to 1.3 million barrels per day, while Kuwait and the UAE managed to reduce offshore levels due to storage constraints. Iran's foreign ministry warned tankers to exercise caution in the insecure waters.
Prices reversed course after President Donald Trump told CBS News, “I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” signaling the conflict was ahead of schedule and nearing resolution. In a Truth Social post, Trump described the short-term price spike as a “very small price to pay” for eliminating Iran's nuclear threat. Energy Secretary Chris Wright added that ship traffic through the strait would resume soon after neutralizing threats, estimating “a few weeks” at worst.
U.S. stocks rebounded on the de-escalation signals, with the S&P 500 closing 0.8% higher after early losses, while global markets had tumbled earlier on supply fears. G7 nations discussed releasing strategic reserves to temper prices, though no decision was finalized.
The war, which began late last month, has triggered the largest oil supply shock in history, forcing production cuts across the Middle East and paralyzing tanker movements. Trump also floated easing Russian oil sanctions to boost supply. Analysts noted the plunge reflected bets on a swift end to disruptions, though risks persist if the conflict drags on.
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