With Texas voters heading to the polls Tuesday, the Republican contest for U.S. Senate has tightened into a three-way race, with state Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow but consistent lead, according to recent surveys.

New polling from Quantus Insights among 939 likely Republican primary voters shows Paxton at 43%, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn at 37.6%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 15.7%, with 3.8% undecided. The survey found 86% of voters firmly committed, indicating little likelihood of late shifts.

Other polls show similar trends: a University of Texas survey had Paxton leading 36% to 34%, and a Hobby School of Public Affairs poll at the University of Houston found Paxton at 38%, Cornyn 31%, and Hunt 17%, with 12% undecided.

Under Texas law, a candidate must win over 50% to avoid a runoff. With Paxton below that threshold, a May runoff is likely. Hobby polling suggests Paxton performs strongly in hypothetical runoff matchups, leading Cornyn 51% to 40% and Hunt 56% to 33%.

The race reveals a generational divide. Among voters 65 and older, roughly 72% of the primary electorate, Paxton and Cornyn are essentially tied. Paxton leads by double digits among voters under 65. His support is concentrated among America First or MAGA-aligned voters, who make up more than half of likely primary voters. Cornyn performs better with traditional conservatives, but that group is smaller in today’s GOP electorate.

Hunt has shown steady support in the mid-teens, performing best with younger voters. In the Quantus poll, he reaches 26% among voters 18-29 and 22% among those 30-44. While trailing, Hunt’s presence complicates Cornyn’s path to consolidating anti-Paxton support before a runoff.

President Donald Trump remains highly popular, with nearly 90% favorability among Republican primary voters, a factor that bolsters Paxton’s campaign as he aligns closely with Trump’s agenda.

Paxton enters primary day with momentum, but is still short of a majority.