New polling from the University of Houston shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a clear lead over incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary, signaling strong grassroots support heading into the election.

According to the Houston University survey of 550 likely Republican primary voters conducted January 20–31, 2026, Ken Paxton leads with 38% of voter support, followed by Cornyn at 31% and Congressman Wesley Hunt at 17%, with 12% undecided.

In head-to-head primary runoff scenarios, Paxton maintains commanding advantages: 51% to 40% over Cornyn and 56% to 33% over Hunt, while Cornyn only narrowly leads Hunt 46% to 39%. These numbers suggest Paxton’s strong base could dominate if the race moves to a runoff.

The general election picture also favors Paxton. Polling shows him narrowly ahead of potential Democratic challengers, with 45–46% support in matchups against Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico, underscoring Paxton’s appeal to broader Texas voters.

Favorability ratings further highlight the contrast between the Republican contenders. Paxton has a 41% favorable rating, while Cornyn trails at 38%. Cornyn also carries the highest unfavorable rating among the GOP candidates at 48%, compared to Paxton’s 48% combined favorable/unfavorable assessment, suggesting Cornyn’s incumbency is not translating into strong voter enthusiasm.

President Donald Trump remains a dominant figure among Texas Republicans, with 89% of likely primary voters viewing him favorably. This aligns with Paxton’s solid standing, as he is widely associated with Trump-aligned policies, while Cornyn’s lower favorability reflects growing skepticism among the GOP base about his record and alignment with conservative priorities.

Issues driving voters include inflation and the cost of living, cited by 46% of likely general election voters as their top concern, followed by jobs and the economy at 29%. Texans are split on the direction of state policy, with 47% believing Texas is on the right track and 47% saying the opposite, while a majority of voters feel the U.S. is headed off course.

The survey demonstrates that Paxton’s campaign is resonating with conservative voters, building momentum ahead of the March primary and positioning him as the front-runner against Cornyn in a Republican electorate increasingly attentive to results over seniority.