Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., leads the 2026 Tennessee Republican gubernatorial primary by a commanding 51 points, according to a Cygnal poll conducted March 16–17 among 500 likely primary voters. Blackburn captured 58% support, including 34% who say they would definitely back her and 24% who would probably support her.

Her nearest competitors are U.S. Rep. John Rose, R-Tenn., at 7%, and state Rep. Monty Fritts, R-Kingston, at 4%. Cygnal noted that with 30% of voters still undecided, there is “little room for meaningful movement” away from Blackburn’s strong lead.

The poll found that Blackburn enjoys the highest backing among voters aligned with former President Trump, earning roughly 69% support compared to 49% among “Traditional GOP” voters. Economic issues dominate the primary electorate, with cost of living and inflation ranking as the top concern at 24%, followed by immigration at 15% and jobs and the broader economy at 10%.

Policy positions also play a significant role. The survey found 80% of primary voters support Trump-backed prescription drug pricing reforms, while 71% want the state government to actively support such measures. About 60% said they would be less likely to back a gubernatorial candidate opposed to these initiatives.

Voters showed caution on emerging technologies, with 43% expecting artificial intelligence to negatively impact Tennessee, while 66% favored increased regulation of AI companies. On infrastructure, 43% supported statewide data center construction, but local projects faced slightly more opposition.

Previous surveys reinforce Blackburn’s lead. A February poll by Tennesseans for Student Success showed her at 60.6% support, with Rose at 8.1% and Fritts at 5.1%. Another survey from the Beacon Center of Tennessee earlier this year showed Blackburn leading Rose by 47 points and Fritts by 49 points.

The Republican primary election for governor is scheduled for Aug. 6. The Cygnal poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.38%.