A recent J.L. Partners poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters in Texas conducted January 31–February 2, 2026, shows Attorney General Ken Paxton leading the U.S. Senate primary with 27%, narrowly followed by Rep. Wesley Hunt at 25.7% and incumbent Sen. John Cornyn at 25.5%, with 21.7% undecided, signaling a tight three-way race that could leave Cornyn outside the runoff if he finishes third.

The poll indicates the contest has tightened since December, when Paxton led with 29% and Hunt and Cornyn were tied at 24%. Paxton’s advantage has now narrowed to roughly 1.5 points overall, with Hunt edging Cornyn for second place. If no candidate reaches 50% in the March 3 primary, the top two finishers will advance to a May 26 runoff.

In head-to-head matchups, Hunt defeats both Paxton (44% to 34%) and Cornyn (44% to 33%), while Paxton holds a narrow one-point edge over Cornyn (41% to 40%). J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson said the findings show Paxton is vulnerable in a direct matchup but could still benefit from a fractured field: “This poll provides one of the few unbiased takes out there. It shows Ken Paxton is beatable, with his lead narrowing to one point, but a three-way tie could yet gift him the primary.”

The results underscore growing vulnerability for Cornyn, a longtime establishment Republican, as Paxton’s anti-establishment appeal and Hunt’s rising profile challenge the incumbent. Conservatives view the poll as further evidence that GOP primary voters are seeking stronger America First fighters, with Paxton’s aggressive actions on border security, election integrity, and Big Tech enforcement resonating amid frustration with Washington insiders.

Paxton’s Super PAC has recently targeted Hunt, suggesting his campaign views the congressman as a greater threat than Cornyn. President Trump has not yet issued an endorsement, though his backing could dramatically reshape the race. With roughly a month remaining before the primary, tens of millions in establishment spending to save Cornyn may not be enough against two formidable challengers, potentially setting up a runoff, and a major shake-up in Texas’ Senate representation.