Millions of residents across the Southern Plains and Deep South are facing an increasing flood threat as a powerful storm system moves eastward, bringing heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, the system is expected to emerge from Baja California on Friday and track through the Southwest into the Southern Plains. A broad swath stretching from eastern Oklahoma to Georgia could see 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the weekend, with localized totals reaching as much as five inches in some areas.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a low-level flash flood threat for portions of Oklahoma and North Central Texas beginning Friday. That risk is projected to intensify on Saturday, with a Level 2 out of 4 threat in place for parts of Northeast Texas, eastern Oklahoma, and central Arkansas, including the Little Rock metro area. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible throughout the region.

The approaching storm marks a significant shift in the nation’s recent weather patterns. Much of the eastern United States endured an active winter season, with repeated snow and ice events fueled by persistent cold air in December, January, and early February. That frigid pattern has since given way to a record-setting warm-up across the central states, with the Northeast also beginning to thaw. As a result, precipitation from this system is expected to fall primarily as rain.

In many parts of the South and Southern Plains, the rainfall will provide relief to drought-stricken areas, particularly in Arkansas and portions of Georgia. However, saturated ground and heavy downpours could quickly elevate flooding concerns.

Looking ahead, forecast models indicate the storm will likely shift southward along the Gulf Coast before moving offshore near the Southeast. Some models suggest a less probable northern track that could affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Early next week, meteorologists anticipate a significant dip in the jet stream over the West, allowing high pressure to build across the eastern United States. This evolving pattern could create favorable conditions for stronger storm development across the central states and potentially increase the risk of severe weather in the South.

Warmer air and growing atmospheric instability may set the stage for more intense thunderstorms in the days ahead, underscoring the need for residents to monitor forecasts as conditions develop.