The California governor’s race has seen a shift as Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) moves into the top spot among Democratic candidates, according to a recent Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll.

On the Republican side, Fox News contributor Steve Hilton leads Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, though the GOP electorate remains closely divided. Hilton received support from 17% of respondents, while Swalwell and Bianco each garnered 14%. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) came in third among Democrats with 10%, down from 11% in December 2025. Billionaire Tom Steyer rose from 4% to 9% following increased ad spending.

Hilton has criticized Bianco for kneeling with protesters during Black Lives Matter demonstrations and skipping a gubernatorial debate. Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball noted that Hilton also attracts a plurality of independent voters, while Democratic support remains scattered: 23% back Swalwell, 14% Porter, 12% Steyer, and 22% are undecided.

California’s open primary system will advance the top two candidates, regardless of party, to the general election. About 21% of voters remain undecided, leaving room for shifts in the race.

Incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) faces declining approval, dropping from 47% to 44%, while his disapproval increased from 39% to 45%, producing a net 9-point drop. Californians also expressed strong disapproval of President Donald Trump, with 62% unfavorable versus 32% favorable.