Republicans Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton are currently leading the 2026 California gubernatorial race, according to a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,001 likely voters conducted January 20–21. Bianco leads the field with 18 percent support, followed closely by Hilton at 17 percent.

The Democratic field remains deeply fractured. Rep. Katie Porter polls at 14 percent, followed by Rep. Eric Swalwell at 11 percent, billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer at 8 percent, former Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 6 percent, Santa Clara County Sheriff Matt Mahan at 5 percent, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 2 percent, and State Superintendent Tony Thurmond at 1 percent. With no Democrat breaking 15 percent, the survey suggests the party risks failing to secure a place on the general election ballot if Republican support consolidates behind the top two GOP candidates.

Bianco, a vocal critic of sanctuary policies and a law-and-order conservative, has gained traction by emphasizing border security and public safety—issues that continue to resonate amid concerns over crime and homelessness. Hilton, a media personality with close ties to former President Donald Trump, has positioned himself as an outsider challenger to Sacramento’s progressive political establishment.

The poll underscores significant Democratic fragmentation, with multiple high-profile candidates dividing the left-leaning vote. Porter’s internal polling efforts appear aimed at demonstrating her viability while highlighting the danger that continued infighting could hand Republicans a rare opportunity in a state long dominated by Democrats.

California’s June 2026 primary remains fluid, with a substantial share of undecided voters and ample room for movement as campaigns ramp up. Under the state’s top-two primary system, only the two highest vote-getters—regardless of party—advance to the general election. If the current standings hold, the November ballot would feature two Republicans for the first time in modern California political history.