Spain’s National Immigration and Borders Centre (CNIF) and the General Immigration and Borders Commissariat of the National Police have produced internal estimates warning that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s amnesty program for illegal migrants could grant residency to up to 1.35 million people, far more than the 500,000 cited publicly by the Socialist-led government.

The report, obtained by the El Confidencial news site, projects that between 750,000 and 1 million undocumented migrants currently in Spain could receive residence permits, while an additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers may attempt to gain legal status. Officials also warned that the program could act as a “pull factor,” drawing more illegal migrants from other EU countries, especially given Spain’s position in the open-border Schengen zone.

The CNIF cautioned that the amnesty could create an international perception of Spain as permissive toward irregular immigration, a view reinforced by extensive media coverage, particularly in Latin America.

Public opposition to the plan is strong. A SocioMétrica poll found nearly seven in ten Spaniards oppose granting residence to illegal migrants, with opposition highest among voters aged 17 to 35, who are likely to face the most direct economic impact, including lower wages and higher housing costs.

Despite widespread resistance, left-wing factions have supported the amnesty. The radical Podemos party praised the policy as a way to “replace” native conservatives with foreign migrants and called for extending voting rights to migrants regardless of citizenship. A Podemos MEP stated, “Of course, I want there to be replacement: replacement of fascists, replacement of racists, replacement of freeloaders, and that we can do it with working people, whatever their skin colour may be.”

The internal police report, combined with public opposition and political advocacy for broader immigration rights, underscores the contentious nature of Sánchez’s amnesty scheme and its potential impact on Spain’s demographic and economic landscape.