Two Republican candidates are leading early polling for California's open gubernatorial primary. Steve Hilton garnered 17% support among likely voters, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco followed at 16%, according to the latest UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll.

The survey, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and conducted online from March 9 to 15 among 3,889 likely voters for the June 2 primary, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. Democratic hopefuls trailed closely, with U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell and former Rep. Katie Porter each at 13%, billionaire Tom Steyer at 10%, and former Attorney General Xavier Becerra at 5%. Other Democrats, including former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, polled at 4% or lower, while 18% remained undecided or supported others.

California's nonpartisan top-two primary system advances the top two finishers to the November general election regardless of party affiliation. With Democrats outnumbering Republicans more than two-to-one statewide, a GOP sweep of the top two spots could mark a historic upset, as no Republican has won a statewide race since 2006.

Incumbent Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited after serving two terms and cannot seek re-election. More than 20 candidates have declared, but Democrats have fragmented their support across at least 10 contenders, while Republicans have coalesced around Hilton, a conservative commentator and former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron, and Bianco, sheriff since 2018.

Republicans showed strong partisan loyalty in the poll, with 45% backing Hilton and 44% supporting Bianco. Democrats split their votes, with Swalwell leading their field at 24% and Porter at 20%. Independents and those with no party preference remained scattered, with 29% undecided.

Poll director Mark DiCamillo highlighted low voter enthusiasm, noting that no candidate enjoys net favorable ratings and many voters lack opinions on the contenders. "They’re kind of sleepwalking to this election," he said. Affordability, especially the high cost of living, emerged as the top concern for 40% of respondents across parties.

Earlier surveys showed a tighter race. A February Public Policy Institute of California poll placed Hilton, Porter, Bianco, Steyer, and Swalwell in a virtual tie, around 12-14% each. An Emerson College poll from early March had Swalwell ahead at 17%, but the GOP duo has surged in the latest data.

The California Democratic Party has urged lower-polling candidates to withdraw to avoid vote-splitting, but most have pressed on. Hilton's support has doubled from 8% in an October 2025 poll, aided by his media profile, while Bianco benefits from name recognition as a law enforcement figure.

With ballots mailing in less than three months, the race remains fluid amid undecided voters and potential shifts in momentum.