Russia continues incremental advances in eastern Ukraine as the war enters its fifth year, prompting renewed debate over territorial concessions for peace. The Institute for the Study of War reported on February 25 that Russian forces have made limited gains near Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, following their seizure of the town of Pokrovsk in December 2025, though Ukrainian counterattacks have prevented broader breakthroughs.

Russia now controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory within its 1991 borders, including nearly all of Luhansk Oblast and large portions of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. In the past week ending February 24, Russian forces lost 33 square miles according to ISW data, while Ukraine maintains defensive lines and conducts deep strikes on Russian infrastructure. Casualties mount on both sides, with estimates of 1.2 million total Russian losses and 500,000 to 600,000 for Ukraine since February 2022.

Military analysts assess that Russia can sustain operations through 2026 despite economic strains, spending 7.3% of GDP on defense in 2025, double the U.S. proportion, while recruiting 30,000 to 35,000 personnel monthly. Ukraine faces manpower shortages and relies heavily on Western aid, with troop density on the 620-mile front line at less than half Cold War defensive standards.

Trilateral talks in Geneva on February 17-18 involving the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia yielded no major agreements, focusing on ceasefire monitoring, security guarantees, and territorial issues like Donbas control. The U.S. has pushed for a deal by June 2026, proposing economic zones in parts of Donetsk and 15-year security commitments, but Russia insists on recognition of its annexations, and Ukraine rejects ceding unoccupied land. A second round is planned for early March.

Public sentiment in Ukraine is shifting amid war fatigue. A February 2026 poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found 40% support for surrendering Donbas in exchange for strong security guarantees, up from near-zero opposition in 2022. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated the public would not forgive territorial giveaways, emphasizing any deal must be accepted by Ukrainians and backed by international law.

Experts argue that Ukraine's position is deteriorating. In Foreign Affairs on February 26, Michael C. Desch wrote that Russia outguns Ukraine across major systems, tanks 5:1, artillery 5:1, and benefits from superior population and production, including a 10:1 drone edge. "Ukraine is losing the war," he concluded, recommending concessions on Donetsk, Luhansk, parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and NATO neutrality to secure a viable future state.

Ukrainian officials maintain no territorial concessions, with Deputy Foreign Minister Irina Vakulyuk stating on February 25 that Kyiv will never agree. European allies bolster support, approving €90 billion in loans for 2026-27, while Russia rejects Western guarantees. As Russian strikes persist, downing 95 of 115 drones on February 24-25, the path to peace remains elusive.