The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.9 percent in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, more than tripling the 0.3 percent increase seen the prior month. The annual inflation rate climbed to 3.3 percent for the 12 months ending in March, up from 2.4 percent in February.
Gasoline prices led the surge, jumping 21.2 percent for the month, the largest monthly increase since 1967, and accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall headline rise. The broader energy index climbed 10.9 percent, its biggest monthly gain since September 2005, with fuel oil up 30.7 percent. Economists attributed the spike to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which erupted at the end of February, sending global crude oil prices 30 percent higher and disrupting supplies.
Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core CPI increased a more modest 0.2 percent for the month and 2.6 percent annually, matching February's pace for the headline core measure. Shelter costs, a key core component, rose 0.3 percent, while food prices held steady overall, with grocery items down 0.2 percent.
The conflict in Iran began late last month, prompting a ceasefire that has since stabilized energy markets somewhat into April. Before the war, inflation had cooled steadily, with February's annual rate at 2.4 percent, near the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. Goldman Sachs economist Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo noted that the Fed is likely to view the energy shock as temporary "noise," providing room for patience on interest rates.
Other categories showed mixed results: airline fares rose 2.7 percent, apparel rose 1.0 percent, but used cars fell 0.4 percent, and medical care declined 0.2 percent. Over the year, energy costs rose 12.5 percent, shelter costs 3.0 percent, and food costs 2.7 percent.
The data comes as President Trump navigates economic pressures from the Middle East tensions, following earlier administration claims of tamed inflation. Markets await the next CPI release in May, with expectations that moderating oil prices could ease headline pressures.
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