The White House issued a staff-wide email on March 24 cautioning employees against using nonpublic information to place bets on prediction markets tied to the U.S. war with Iran. The message, sent by the White House Management Office, followed President Donald Trump's announcement the previous day of a pause in hostilities against Iranian energy infrastructure.

The warning came amid scrutiny over suspiciously timed trades on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Traders placed more than $500 million in crude oil futures contracts in the 15 minutes before Trump's March 23 Truth Social post, delaying strikes. A similar pattern emerged before a recent two-week ceasefire announcement, with about $950 million bet on falling oil prices hours earlier, contributing to a 15 percent drop.

Newly created Polymarket accounts profited significantly from bets on Iran ceasefire outcomes and related events, including one that reportedly earned over $550,000 on markets involving Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Earlier incidents, such as bets preceding the U.S.-backed ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, also drew attention.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle confirmed the email's existence but stressed that federal ethics rules already prohibit government employees from using confidential information for personal financial gain or gambling on federal property. "Any implication that Administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting," Ingle said. He added that President Trump has made clear officials should not profit from nonpublic information.

Democrats have called for investigations. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to probe potential misappropriation of information, while Representative Ritchie Torres requested a federal insider trading review from the SEC and CFTC. Democratic leaders introduced legislation in March to ban prediction market betting on wars or military actions.

Polymarket and Kalshi announced tighter insider trading rules on March 23. The surge in prediction market popularity has prompted broader questions about regulation, especially as bets on geopolitical events like the Iran conflict proliferate.