The national average price of gasoline is expected to remain above $4 per gallon through the Nov. 3 midterm elections, energy analysts warn, leaving American motorists facing higher costs as Republicans fight to retain control of Congress.

Gasoline averaged $4.27 per gallon nationwide Thursday, an increase of nearly $1.30, or 43%, since the Iran war began in February, according to AAA data. Analysts say continued fighting in the Middle East, disruptions to Russian oil exports and damage to refining infrastructure are likely to prevent significant price relief before voters head to the polls.

“Gasoline will not fall below $4/gal prior to the midterms,” GasBuddy petroleum analyst Patrick De Haan wrote Wednesday on X.

President Donald Trump has announced several measures aimed at reducing energy costs for American families, farmers and truckers. Those initiatives include temporarily easing sanctions on Russian diesel imports, expanding access to red-dyed diesel fuel and providing $8 billion in assistance to farmers.

“Diesel prices for Americans and, indeed, the world, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

However, analysts have questioned whether the measures will provide meaningful savings before Election Day. Diesel prices have climbed nearly 75% from a year earlier to approximately $6.30 per gallon, increasing transportation expenses that can feed into the cost of groceries and other consumer goods.

Global oil markets remain under pressure. Brent crude futures rose above $112 per barrel Thursday, nearly 60% higher than when the Iran war began. The conflict has raised concerns about energy shipments through critical Middle Eastern routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy claimed Thursday that it had attacked four vessels in the strait, while Iranian-backed Houthi militants have also claimed strikes against Saudi energy facilities. These developments have added to concerns over the security of regional oil supplies.

Although crude exports from the region have improved, damaged refineries and elevated shipping costs continue to constrain supplies of gasoline and diesel. The United States remains the world's largest oil producer, but American consumers are still exposed to international price increases because petroleum products are traded on global markets.

Gasoline prices typically decline during autumn as demand eases and refineries transition to less-expensive winter fuel blends. Analysts say those seasonal factors are unlikely to offset the current supply pressures.

“It's usually a pretty slow downward trajectory for gas prices,” University of Houston petroleum engineering professor Ramanan Krishnamoorti told ABC News.

Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at Dow Jones Energy, also expressed little optimism about a near-term decline below $4 per gallon. Asked whether prices could fall below that threshold before Election Day, he gave a blunt assessment: “Short answer: No.”

The outlook presents another challenge for Republicans heading into the midterms, as persistent fuel costs put pressure on household budgets and transportation-dependent businesses while the Trump administration works to address international supply disruptions.