The September Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll shows a closely divided electorate heading into the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats and Republicans essentially tied on the generic congressional ballot among registered voters. The monthly survey was conducted as voters prepare to choose candidates for Congress in November.

Among registered voters, 50% said they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate, while an identical 50% chose a Republican. Among likely voters, Democrats held a narrow 51%-49% advantage.

The poll also found that many voters have already settled on their choices. Half said their minds were made up about whom they would support, while roughly two-thirds said they expected to vote a straight-party ticket.

Democratic voters were somewhat more likely than Republicans to say their decisions were final, with 59% of Democrats saying they had definitely made up their minds compared with 58% of Republicans. Independent voters remained considerably less settled, with only 33% saying their minds were made up.

The two parties were also closely aligned on the importance of participating in the midterms. 63% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans said voting in the election was extremely important.

Economic concerns ranked as the leading issue for voters. 45% identified inflation and affordability as the issue most important to them personally, followed by restoring what respondents described as basic American values of merit and competence and then crime.

When asked about the country's broader challenges, the economy again ranked first, followed by health care and immigration.

President Donald Trump and Republicans held a narrow advantage on economic trust. 51% said they trusted Trump more to handle the economy, including 15% of Democrats. Independents, however, preferred Democrats on the issue by a 54%-46% margin.

The survey also showed voters favoring lower taxes and reduced government spending. Fifty-eight percent said they would prefer to decrease taxes, compared with 15% who favored increasing them and 27% who wanted taxes kept at their current levels.

On government spending, 64% favored decreasing spending, while 16% wanted it increased and 19% preferred keeping spending at current levels. Fifty-six percent also favored cutting interest rates, compared with 18% who supported increases and 26% who wanted rates unchanged.

The poll additionally tested a proposal from Trump to provide $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans retain control of both the House and Senate. 57% approved of the proposal, although 69% said they viewed it primarily as an effort to encourage voters to support Republicans.

The results underscore the narrow partisan divide heading into the midterms, with the generic congressional ballot effectively even among registered voters and only a small Democratic advantage among those classified as likely voters. The September survey was released Sept. 29 by the Harvard Center for American Political Studies and Harris Insights & Analytics.