Republican Sen. Jon Husted holds a razor-thin lead over Democrat Sherrod Brown in Ohio’s 2026 U.S. Senate race, according to a new ActiVote poll released Sunday. The survey found Husted ahead 50.2% to 49.8% among likely voters, a margin of just 0.4 percentage points.

The poll surveyed 400 likely voters between Sept. 26 and Oct. 18, with a median field date of Oct. 7. Its margin of error is 4.9 percentage points, meaning the candidates are effectively tied within the survey’s statistical uncertainty.

ActiVote’s analysis suggested the outcome could hinge on voters in the political center. “The race is decided in the center, where Husted leads by 56% to 44%,” the firm wrote.

The pollster found Husted performing better among rural voters, men, white voters, adults ages 30 to 64 and voters with a high school education or less. Brown led among suburban and urban voters, women, Black voters, the youngest and oldest age groups, and college-educated voters. ActiVote cautioned that subgroup estimates carry substantially greater margins of error than the overall results. Ohio also does not register voters by political party.

A separate Rasmussen Reports survey from Oct. 14 also showed Husted ahead. Numbers shared by the Political Polls account on X put the Republican at 49% and Brown at 47% among likely voters. The account characterized the results as a five-point shift toward Husted compared with an earlier survey.

The findings contrast with several recent polls that gave Brown a clearer advantage. A CNN survey released Oct. 8 showed Brown leading 49% to 43%. A New York Times/Siena College poll put Brown ahead 49% to 46%, while a Marist poll showed him with a larger 51% to 43% lead.

Brown is seeking a return to the Senate after losing his seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in the 2024 election. Husted, meanwhile, entered the chamber through an appointment by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine in 2025, filling the vacancy created when JD Vance became vice president.

President Donald Trump has endorsed Husted and campaigned for him this month. Trump carried Ohio by approximately 11 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, giving Republicans a strong recent statewide result to point to as they work to retain the seat.

The race is also part of the broader battle for control of the Senate. Although the newest polls offer Republicans encouraging numbers, the ActiVote results remain within the margin of error, and the contrasting surveys underscore the uncertainty surrounding the contest months before Election Day.