Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has taken a narrow lead over Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the race for the U.S. Senate, according to a new poll released Thursday, giving Republicans another encouraging data point less than a month before Election Day.

The InsiderAdvantage survey found Paxton leading Talarico 49% to 48% among 1,200 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. The poll did not include demographic cross-tabs as of Thursday evening, leaving questions about which voter groups are driving the tight race.

The result marks the second poll in a week to show Paxton narrowly ahead. A separate survey from Quantus Insights released Tuesday put Paxton at 47.2% and Talarico at 46.7%, effectively placing the candidates within a statistical dead heat.

That survey showed Talarico holding a substantial advantage among independent voters, leading 52% to 37%. However, Paxton’s support among Republican voters remains central to the contest in a state where the GOP has dominated statewide elections.

Talarico, a progressive Democrat, has faced criticism over his positions on social issues and his recent absence from the campaign trail. His nearly two-week break from public campaigning, which his campaign attributed to the flu, drew scrutiny as the election approached.

The race has also become one of the most expensive contests of the 2026 midterm cycle. Republican-aligned groups have poured substantial resources into supporting Paxton and opposing Talarico. Axios reported that a Texas political action committee aligned with the Senate Leadership Fund spent $131 million in September, with additional spending expected in October.

Despite Paxton’s recent polling gains, the contest remains highly competitive. Cook Political Report rates the race a toss-up after previously classifying it as leaning Republican, while RealClearPolitics ’ average cited in the report showed Talarico ahead by 2.3 percentage points.

Texas voters can begin casting ballots in person during early voting on Monday, October 19, setting the stage for a final stretch in which turnout, campaign spending and the candidates’ ability to mobilize their respective bases could prove decisive.