Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., has emerged as the early front-runner in Florida’s 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary, according to an Emerson College Polling released on Thursday. The poll shows Donalds with 46% support among likely Republican primary voters, while Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and investor James Fishback each received 4%, and 39% remained undecided.

Emerson College
Credit: Emerson College

A separate hypothetical Republican primary including current Gov. Ron DeSantis’ wife, Casey DeSantis, still found Donalds leading with 44%, while Casey DeSantis registered 7%. “Byron Donalds is the clear favorite among Republicans to succeed Governor DeSantis,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Donalds leads all age groups and holds majority support among voters over 60, at 54%.”

Donalds launched his campaign after receiving former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, opening his bid with a rally in Bonita Springs. Collins joined the race in January, and several other Republicans are expected to compete in what remains a key contest in a state where the GOP has dominated statewide elections in recent years.

On the Democratic side, former U.S. Rep. David Jolly led early support at 21%, followed by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at 10%, while 53% were undecided. Hypothetical matchups show Donalds ahead of Jolly at 44% to 39%, though a contest between Jolly and Casey DeSantis is tighter at 40% to 39%. Among Florida Hispanic voters, support was nearly even between Donalds (42%) and Jolly (41%).

The survey also included Florida’s 2026 Senate race, finding appointed Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Fla., leading potential Democratic challengers. Emerson Polling noted a divided electorate entering the 2026 cycle, with Trump holding a 46% approval rating and DeSantis at 50%. Economic concerns were evident, as 45% of likely voters said they were worse off financially than a year ago.

Florida’s primary election is scheduled for Aug. 18, 2026, with the general election set for Nov. 3. The open governor’s race draws national attention because Gov. DeSantis cannot seek another consecutive term, and Democrats face a steep challenge in a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles’ 1994 reelection.

Emerson College surveyed 1,125 likely voters from March 29-31, 2026, with a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points.