Will Texas really be turning blue this November? Pollsters aren't so sure anymore.

A fresh InsiderAdvantage poll conducted October 13-14 showed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Democratic state Rep. James Talarico 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters in the U.S. Senate contest. The survey of 1,200 likely voters carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

This marks the first time in recent weeks that Paxton has topped Talarico in a major public poll. Earlier surveys had consistently placed the Democrat ahead, but numbers have tightened sharply across the board as early voting began Monday across Texas.

The RealClearPolitics polling average now stands at Talarico plus 1.5 points. No polls conducted in October have shown Talarico ahead by more than 2 points.

Prediction markets reflect the narrowing contest. Kalshi's estimated margin of victory for Talarico peaked at 2.7 points on October 6 but has since fallen to 1.7 points. Traders still price Talarico as the favorite to win the seat, though the edge has eroded from earlier highs.

Paxton's slight edge in the InsiderAdvantage survey comes amid heavy Republican spending in the race and criticism of Talarico's campaign visibility in the final weeks. The contest remains rated a toss-up by forecasters, with Election Day set for November 3rd.