An internal poll commissioned by Sen. Bill Cassidy’s re-election campaign shows the Louisiana Republican in a far weaker position than expected ahead of the 2026 GOP Senate primary, pulling just 32% support in a fractured field led by Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow at 21%. With nearly one-fifth of voters undecided and persistent conservative backlash over Cassidy’s vote to impeach President Trump and his recent criticism of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the numbers signal serious vulnerability for the two-term incumbent in a state that remains overwhelmingly pro-Trump.
The survey, conducted January 20–22, 2026, by Public Opinion Strategies among 600 likely Republican primary voters (margin of error ±4%), is especially damaging because it was commissioned by Cassidy’s own campaign. Despite universal name recognition and incumbency, Cassidy is struggling to consolidate GOP support:
- Bill Cassidy: 32%
- Julia Letlow: 21%
- John Fleming: 16%
- Blake Miguez: 9%
- Undecideds: 19%
Unlike prior cycles, Louisiana will use a closed Republican primary in 2026, meaning only registered GOP voters may participate, a structural change that significantly alters the dynamics of the race. That shift is widely viewed as favoring Letlow and other Trump-aligned candidates, while narrowing Cassidy’s path by excluding independents and crossover voters who have historically softened his margins. In a closed primary dominated by highly engaged, pro-Trump Republicans, Cassidy’s inability to break out of the low 30s is a major warning sign.
President Trump’s endorsement of Rep. Julia Letlow earlier this month has further reshaped the contest. Trump praised Letlow as a “strong America First fighter” while sharply attacking Cassidy for his 2021 vote to convict Trump in the second impeachment trial—an act that remains a defining grievance among Louisiana Republicans. Cassidy has compounded the damage by publicly opposing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead HHS and by taking more moderate stances on COVID policy, foreign aid, and federal authority, positions increasingly out of step with the GOP base.
Letlow, the widow of late Rep. Luke Letlow, has quickly consolidated MAGA-aligned support, while Trump allies John Fleming and state Rep. Blake Miguez currently split the remaining anti-Cassidy vote. However, with Trump actively opposing Cassidy and Louisiana delivering Trump a margin of more than 20 points in 2024, pressure is mounting for consolidation behind Letlow.
