The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 194,000 in the week ending October 17, approaching levels last seen nearly six decades ago as employers continued to hold on to workers.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial claims declined by 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected 200,000 claims. It was the sixth consecutive week that claims remained at or below 200,000.
The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly fluctuations to provide a clearer picture of labor market trends, fell by 1,000 to a record low of 197,750. Claims reached 189,000 in mid-July, their lowest level since 1969.
The latest figures suggest employment conditions improved in October following a weaker September. The data covered the period when the government surveyed businesses for the October jobs report, and the decline in the four-week average between the September and October survey periods points to a possible pickup in payroll growth.
Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, following an increase of 133,000 in August. Economists have described the labor market as being in a “low-hire, low-fire” environment, with businesses generally reluctant to add workers but also avoiding widespread layoffs.
Strong corporate profits, steady domestic demand and a smaller available workforce have helped employers retain employees, economists said. Retirements and the Trump administration’s immigration restrictions may also be limiting the supply of workers, making existing employees more difficult to replace.
“Workers are suddenly irreplaceable in many industries,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, pointing to employers’ difficulties finding enough help to produce goods and services.
Despite the low number of layoffs, hiring remains constrained by uncertainty surrounding the war involving the United States, Israel and Iran, as well as tariffs on imported goods. Economists have also warned that higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions could weaken employment conditions next year if the conflict continues to drive up energy costs.
The claims report showed that continuing claims, which track people receiving unemployment benefits beyond their initial week of assistance, increased by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.728 million for the week ending October 10. The figure remains relatively low, although it does not include recent graduates and others who do not qualify for unemployment benefits because of limited work histories.
Some long-term unemployed Americans may also have exhausted their eligibility for benefits, which is generally limited to 26 weeks in most states. The median duration of unemployment reached 11.5 weeks in September, near its highest level in four and a half years.
The national unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in September, suggesting the labor market was not yet generating significant inflationary pressure through rising unemployment or labor-market weakness.
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point in September, bringing it to a range of 3.75% to 4%. Economists expected the central bank to leave rates unchanged at its meeting the following week, while some anticipated another increase in December as policymakers assess inflation risks from higher energy prices.
Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said the labor market gave the Fed room to raise rates if officials determined that tighter monetary policy was needed to curb demand and bring inflation back toward its target.
Financial markets showed little immediate reaction to the unemployment claims report.
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