Veteran homelessness in the United States is projected to decline by 8.2% in 2026, potentially dropping 30,000 people below for the first time since the federal government began tracking the population in 2009, according to a new analysis released Monday by nonprofit organization Community Solutions.

The preliminary estimate suggests the country could reach a historic low in veteran homelessness after years of efforts to connect former service members with stable housing, health care and other support. The findings were reported by Military.com ahead of the Department of Housing and Urban Development's annual homelessness report, which is expected in January.

Community Solutions analyzed available 2026 Point-in-Time counts from 182 of more than 380 HUD-designated regions. Those counts estimate how many people are experiencing homelessness in shelters or on the streets on a single night. Based on the available data, the organization developed three scenarios that put the national number of homeless veterans between 28,000 and 30,600. Its central projection estimates an 8.2% decline, though the final federal figures have not yet been released.

Adam Ruege, principal of policy and evaluation at Community Solutions, said he was highly confident in the projections. He recalled working at the Department of Veterans Affairs in 2011, when the number of homeless veterans was around 75,000.

"To go from 75,000 to now below 30,000 ... something has happened, something has worked, right?" Ruege told Military.com.

Local figures show progress in many communities, though the trend is not uniform nationwide. Among 135 communities with comparable data, 87 reported fewer homeless veterans in 2026, while 44 recorded increases and four saw no change.

Los Angeles posted one of the largest declines, with its homeless veteran population falling from 3,050 to 2,257, a reduction of approximately 26%. The decrease illustrates how local housing initiatives and targeted services can contribute to broader national progress, even as other communities continue to struggle.

Ruege credited sustained federal, state and local efforts, particularly programs that combine housing assistance with medical and support services. He singled out HUD-VASH, a partnership between HUD and the VA that provides housing vouchers alongside VA clinical services to help veterans obtain and maintain permanent housing.

"I think an important thing here is the continued investment and focus of the VA on these services," Ruege said.

He also pointed to state-level efforts in New Jersey, Minnesota and Maine as examples of work contributing to reductions in veteran homelessness. The programs reflect a broader approach that seeks to address not only the immediate need for shelter but also the health, financial and other challenges that can make it difficult for veterans to maintain stable housing.

The projected decline continues a longer-term shift. Veterans accounted for about 16% of the homeless adult population during the early years of the Obama administration, when tens of thousands of former service members lacked stable housing. By 2022, veterans were less likely to experience homelessness than nonveterans, according to the analysis.

Despite the encouraging figures, Community Solutions cautioned that the projections remain preliminary and that progress has not reached every community. The federal government's final Point-in-Time estimates will provide a more complete national picture when HUD releases its report in January.

"We do not want to let off the gas here because we do have a ways to go," Ruege said.

If confirmed by federal data, the projected decline would mark another significant step in efforts to reduce homelessness among Americans who served in the military. Advocates say continued coordination among federal agencies, state governments and local organizations will be necessary to sustain the progress and address increases in communities where veteran homelessness remains a challenge.