Colorado State University is forecasting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, projecting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, along with a reduced likelihood of major hurricane landfalls in the United States and the Caribbean.

The outlook, released Thursday, also estimates 90 units of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a measure of storm intensity and duration, which is below the 1991–2020 average of 123. CSU said the forecast is based on conditions observed through March and indicates overall activity is expected to remain under long-term averages.

Forecasters attributed the outlook to shifting climate patterns, noting that current weak La Niña conditions are expected to transition toward El Niño in the coming months. A moderate to strong El Niño developing during peak hurricane season could increase vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which typically suppresses storm formation and intensification.

The seasonal averages for comparison stand at 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. CSU defines major hurricanes as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

The probability of at least one major hurricane making landfall anywhere along the continental U.S. coastline is estimated at 32%, below the historical average of 43%. Regional breakdowns show a 15% chance for the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, and a 20% chance for the Gulf Coast, both below long-term norms.

The Caribbean is forecast to have a 35% chance of experiencing at least one major hurricane, compared with a historical average of 47%.

Despite the lower forecast, CSU cautioned that even a quieter season can still produce significant damage if a storm makes landfall. Officials emphasized that hurricane activity is highly variable and that preparedness remains essential regardless of seasonal projections.

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is expected to release its official government forecast in May.