Rumors of retirements among the U.S. Supreme Court's oldest justices have gained momentum in recent days, with Justice Samuel Alito emerging as the focal point. The 76-year-old Alito, who marked 20 years on the bench in January 2026, was briefly hospitalized for dehydration on March 20 but returned to work shortly after. Speculation also swirls around 77-year-old Justice Clarence Thomas, though experts consider his exit less likely this year.

Alito's forthcoming book, "So Ordered: An Originalist's View of the Constitution, the Court, and Our Country," scheduled for release on October 6, the day after the Supreme Court's new term begins, has fueled retirement talk. Legal observers noted the timing could limit his promotional activities if he remains on the court. Georgetown law professor Steve Vladeck called the publication date "a pretty big tell." Reports also surfaced that Alito's wife expressed eagerness for his retirement during a taped conversation at a court event last year.

Thomas, appointed in 1991 and approaching the mark next month as the second-longest-serving justice in history, has shown no signs of slowing down. He is in good health and continues to perform strongly, according to University of California law professor John Yoo, who said he would be "utterly shocked" by a Thomas retirement this year.

President Donald Trump addressed the speculation on February 20 following a court ruling on his tariffs, where both justices dissented. "I hope they're going to be around a long time... They're great people," Trump said of Alito and Thomas. Neither justice has responded to inquiries about retirement plans.

The timing aligns with political calculations ahead of the November 2026 congressional midterms. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, but Democrats could gain control, complicating Trump's ability to confirm nominees. A vacancy now would mark Trump's fourth Supreme Court appointment, further solidifying the 6-3 conservative majority he helped build during his first term. Betting markets like Polymarket price a 2026 vacancy at around 55%.

Post-2000 retirements have averaged age 80, with Justice John Paul Stevens departing at 90 in 2010. Three justices have died in office since 2000, including Ruth Bader Ginsburg at 87 in 2020, which allowed Trump to appoint Amy Coney Barrett. Conservative commentator Josh Hammer suggested 2026 as a prudent time for a strategic exit to ensure ideological continuity.