The Federal Reserve is set to meet on September 15-16, 2026, with the benchmark federal funds rate currently held in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Recent economic indicators have dampened any expectations for a rate cut this month.

Core CPI came in higher than anticipated, providing the central bank with justification to consider tightening policy. Strong August payrolls data further bolstered arguments that inflation remains a more pressing issue than labor market weakness.

Governor Chris Waller indicated he is inclined against raising rates at the September meeting. However, broader sentiment among economists in a Reuters poll shows a majority expecting rates to stay on hold for the rest of the year, though the share anticipating at least one hike has risen sharply.

Markets have priced in elevated odds of a quarter-point increase next week, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation above the Fed's 2% target. This environment contrasts with earlier periods when cuts were implemented in 2025.

Policymakers continue to balance solid economic expansion against elevated uncertainty from global factors. The next decision will be closely watched for any updates on the path of policy through the end of 2026.