Republican U.S. Senator Ashley Moody holds a 50 percent to 43 percent lead over Democratic state Representative Angie Nixon in the latest poll of the Florida Senate race, according to a survey from Quantus Insights conducted September 8-10.

The poll of 733 likely voters showed Moody ahead by seven points with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percent. Undecideds voters were at only 4 percent.

This result joins earlier surveys as polling of the race has consistently placed Moody in the lead. A University of North Florida poll from July similarly found Moody at 50 percent and Nixon at 42 percent. Aggregates from sources, including RealClearPolitics, shows Moody averages around 49 percent in polls of the race to Nixon's 40 percent.

Moody was appointed to the seat by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in 2025 after then-Senator Marco Rubio left to join the Trump administration as secretary of state. Moody won the August Republican primary with nearly 80 percent of the vote. Nixon emerged from the Democratic primary after defeating former Army Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman in a similar decisive victory.

Florida has trended strongly Republican in recent cycles, with the state delivering double-digit wins for President Donald Trump and other statewide Republicans in 2024. Moody's background as a former attorney general and circuit judge has seen her maintain broad support across most demographic groups in prior polling. Favorability for Moody in the same survey found 54.3 percent of voters held a positive view of her while 29.8 percent viewed her unfavorably. Nixon lagged behind in this measure too, only 43.0 percent of respondents viewing her favorably compared to 32.7 percent saying unfavorably.

The November 3 special election falls in conjunction with the midterm general elections. The outcome will determine who finishes the remainder of Rubio's term that ends in 2028. As the race enters the last two-month stretch, Moody's campaign widens the gap as the clear favorite.