Much of the United States is expected to experience a warmer and wetter-than-normal winter, but that does not necessarily mean more snow for winter sports enthusiasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its seasonal outlook Thursday, pointing to El Niño as a major influence on the months ahead.

El Niño, a natural climate pattern involving warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean, can disrupt weather patterns worldwide. Its effects tend to follow recognizable regional trends, particularly during strong events, giving meteorologists greater confidence in seasonal forecasts.

However, forecasters caution that warmer temperatures could mean more rain instead of snow across much of the northern United States. James Belanger, vice president of meteorology for the Weather Company, said winter enthusiasts in those regions may be disappointed. “This is going to be a winter that’s really difficult for them to find what they’re looking for,” Belanger said.

NOAA’s outlook indicates that much of the Northeast, Great Lakes region, Upper Midwest and Northern Rockies could receive below-normal snowfall. Parts of the Southern Rockies, Southwest and Southeast, meanwhile, could see more snow than usual.

National Weather Service Director Ken Graham emphasized that the forecast does not eliminate the possibility of major winter storms. “Listen, even in the winter months, it doesn’t mean you’re not going to have snow. It doesn’t mean you might not have a snowstorm,” Graham said during a briefing. “So it doesn’t erase the risk.”

Private forecasters are also anticipating a relatively snow-sparse winter across much of the northern United States. AccuWeather expects Salt Lake City to be the only major metropolitan area to receive above-normal snowfall. Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia could receive approximately half or less of their typical winter snowfall. For those hoping for a white Christmas, Belanger suggested heading to the Southern Rockies. Elsewhere, he warned, snow cover could be limited by late December.

Temperatures are expected to run above average across substantial portions of the country. NOAA forecasts warmer-than-normal conditions across parts or all of 41 of the lower 48 states, with no areas specifically forecast to experience below-normal temperatures. Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are expected to have near-normal temperatures. Forecasters see equal chances of warmer, colder or near-normal conditions across Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska.

The outlook does not rule out outbreaks of Arctic air. National Weather Service meteorologist Jon Gottschalck said the polar vortex may bring fewer extreme cold-air incursions than in a typical winter, but such events remain possible. AccuWeather lead long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok cautioned that a single storm can dramatically change conditions, particularly along the East Coast, and advised watching for potential snowstorms in late January and February.

The Rockies could fare better than other northern regions. AccuWeather expects Denver to experience between 10 and 18 days with at least two inches of snowfall, compared with a historical average of nine days. The company’s overall seasonal snowfall forecast for Denver remains around average, although it anticipates considerably more snow than last winter.

Precipitation is another major factor. NOAA expects parts of 39 states to experience wetter-than-normal conditions, while much of Montana and portions of Oregon, Idaho, Wisconsin and Michigan could be drier. The increased moisture could provide relief for drought-stricken regions of the West and other parts of the country. Gottschalck said forecasters anticipate drought conditions improving or ending in western Oregon and Washington, the Southwest, the central and southern Rockies, the southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the East.

Heavy precipitation could also create serious hazards. Mike Bettes of The Weather Channel warned that California could face repeated atmospheric river events capable of producing significant rainfall, flooding and landslides. Florida and parts of the Southeast should also remain alert for increased tornado activity during the winter and early spring, Gottschalck said.

Forecasters around the world expect the current El Niño to reach potentially record levels during the fall or winter. Graham cautioned that a stronger El Niño does not automatically guarantee stronger weather impacts. Judah Cohen, a winter weather expert and research scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, said he plans to wait a few more weeks before issuing his own forecast, arguing that an unprecedented El Niño could make predictions less certain. “We have no real historical analog or precedent,” Cohen said. “When every meteorologist on the planet is on the same side, I get nervous. We’re not that good.”

While the seasonal outlook points toward a generally warmer and wetter winter, individual storms and regional variations could still produce significant snowfall, extreme cold, flooding, and other hazardous conditions.