Nearly half of Muslims surveyed in France said they would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election, according to a new poll highlighting the potential reaction to a victory by the National Rally leader.

The Ifop survey, commissioned by Marianne and published October 15, found that 46% of Muslim respondents would consider leaving France under a Le Pen presidency. By comparison, 21% of respondents in the general population said they would contemplate moving abroad under the same scenario.

The survey was conducted online from September 25 through September 30 among 9,689 adults in France. The findings measure respondents' stated intentions in a hypothetical political scenario, rather than actual plans or confirmed decisions to emigrate.

The poll also examined concerns about how a Le Pen presidency could affect religious minorities. Among Muslim respondents, 81% said they expected hostility and discrimination against their community to increase if she won the election. Another 27% said they would consider concealing their religious identity.

The findings come amid a national debate over immigration, Islam, secularism and French identity ahead of the 2027 election. Le Pen and her National Rally party have advocated tighter immigration controls and restrictions on certain forms of Islamic dress.

The survey also found that 53% of respondents overall opposed wearing Islamic headscarves in public streets, while 75% supported banning abayas in public secondary schools. Additionally, 72% favored prohibiting conspicuous religious symbols during sporting competitions.

The results reflect stated expectations and attitudes among those surveyed, not proof that a Le Pen victory would cause those predicted outcomes. Nevertheless, the figures illustrate the depth of concern among many Muslim respondents about the possible political and social consequences of a National Rally presidency.