The head of the International Energy Agency issued a stark warning Thursday that Europe could exhaust its jet fuel stocks in as little as six weeks if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume. Executive Director Fatih Birol stated Europe has "maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left," predicting flight cancellations soon without intervention.

The crisis stems from the 2026 Iran war, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. Iran subsequently blockaded the strait in early March, halting nearly all shipping through the vital chokepoint that normally carries 20% of global traded oil. A U.S.-Iran ceasefire took effect on April 8, but ship traffic remains over 90% below pre-war levels as of April 15, with only nine oil tankers transiting this week despite a U.S. naval blockade limited to Iranian ports.

Europe depends heavily on Middle Eastern supplies, which previously accounted for 75% of its net jet fuel imports. Refineries across the continent now operate at maximum capacity, but declining domestic oil production and a shift toward cleaner energy have reduced overall refining capabilities. Airports Council International Europe alerted the European Commission last week that a "systemic" shortage could hit within three weeks absent resupply.

Birol described the situation as "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced," with over 110 oil tankers and 15 LNG carriers stranded in the Persian Gulf. He cautioned that prolonged closure could spike inflation, curb growth, and necessitate rationing, hitting poorer economies hardest before spreading to Europe. Jet fuel prices have more than doubled globally, exacerbating airline costs.

Airlines are already responding. KLM announced cuts to 160 flights from Amsterdam next month, citing soaring kerosene prices. EasyJet reported an additional £25 million in March fuel costs and softer bookings. The European Union is preparing an emergency plan to map refinery capacities and maximize jet fuel output, with details expected on April 22.

Smaller inland airports face the greatest risk, while major hubs may fare better initially. Restoration of regional energy infrastructure could take up to two years, prolonging the global fallout from what Birol called a "dire strait."