Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a narrow lead over U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the latest poll of likely voters for the state's Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff.

The University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey, conducted April 28 to May 1 among 1,200 likely Republican runoff voters, showed Paxton at 48% and Cornyn at 45%, with 7% undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.83 percentage points, placing the race within striking distance for both candidates.

Neither candidate reached a majority in the March 3 Republican primary. Cornyn received 42.5% of the vote with 665,169 ballots, while Paxton got 40.8% with 638,481 votes. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt placed third at 13% with 203,555 votes, sending Cornyn and Paxton to the May 26 runoff.

The poll indicates strong retention of primary support. Paxton holds onto 95% of his March voters planning to participate in the runoff, compared to 91% for Cornyn. Among Hunt's March supporters, 54% back Paxton and 35% support Cornyn.

Demographic splits reveal Paxton's edge among voters without a four-year college degree (55% to 38%), non-White voters, and those prioritizing immigration and border security (40% of Paxton supporters) or election integrity (31%). Cornyn leads among college graduates (52% to 42%), and voters focused on inflation and the cost of living (36% of his supporters).

Favorability ratings are close: Paxton at 50% favorable and 43% unfavorable (net +7), Cornyn at 47% favorable and 49% unfavorable (net -2). Likely voters are evenly split at 43% on which candidate would perform better in the general election against Democratic nominee state Rep. James Talarico.

Other recent polls show a competitive race. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey in mid-April had Paxton ahead by 8 points, while some earlier surveys showed Cornyn with a slight edge. The contest has broken spending records for a Senate primary, with both campaigns and outside groups pouring in millions.

President Donald Trump has yet to endorse, leaving both candidates courting his support. Hunt, who exited after the primary, has held off on an endorsement, awaiting Trump's decision. Early voting for the runoff begins soon, heightening the stakes three weeks before Election Day.

The poll also covers other GOP runoffs. In the attorney general race, state Sen. Mayes Middleton leads U.S. Rep. Chip Roy 48% to 39%. Incumbent Railroad Commissioner Jim Wright holds a 35% to 28% advantage over Bo French, though 37% remain undecided.