A new survey cited by University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape finds that 25% of American adults say force could be justified to prevent President Donald Trump from being president, prompting warnings about political violence surrounding the 2026 midterm elections.

Pape, director of the University of Chicago’s Chicago Project on Security and Threats, said the figure represents roughly 65 million American adults. Among respondents who identified as Democrats, 44% said they supported using force to prevent Trump from holding the presidency.

Pape discussed the findings during a recent interview with podcaster Chris Williamson as he warned that the upcoming midterm elections could bring a significant increase in political violence. He said the United States has not experienced this level of political violence since the 1960s.

CPOST has been tracking Americans’ attitudes toward political violence since 2021 through nationally representative surveys conducted with NORC at the University of Chicago. Pape said the latest numbers represent a substantial increase from earlier measurements, including roughly 9% in an earlier survey and 14% in September 2025. A May 2025 survey found 39% of Democrats agreeing that force could be justified to remove Trump from the presidency.

The latest survey also attempted to determine what respondents mean when they say force could be justified. Pape said 55% of those supporting force against Trump associated it with lethal violence, including assassination, while others described forms of riot-style or nonlethal violence.

Pape said the concern is not limited to opposition to Trump. His latest polling also found that 16% of Americans supported Trump using the military to suppress Democratic protesters, indicating that support for coercive political action exists on both sides of the political spectrum.

The political scientist said he is particularly concerned about what happens after Election Day. Rather than viewing Election Day itself as the most dangerous period, Pape identified the weeks following the vote count and extending through the seating of winners in January as a potential "danger zone."

Pape said the key question will be whether losing candidates and their supporters accept the results or instead conclude that the election was stolen. He has described the broader phenomenon as "violent populism," arguing that political anger is increasingly being normalized among people outside traditional extremist movements.

The survey findings come amid a series of high-profile acts of political violence and threats involving figures from both parties. Trump survived an assassination attempt at a July 2024 campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where he was wounded and rally attendee Corey Comperatore was killed. A second assassination attempt was later thwarted near Trump's Florida golf course, and Ryan Wesley Routh was subsequently convicted and sentenced to life in prison.

Pape has also pointed to threats and attacks against Democratic officials as evidence that political violence is not confined to one ideological camp. CPOST has previously documented a sharp increase in threats against members of Congress, with both Republican and Democratic lawmakers targeted.

Pape argues that the current threat is increasingly defined not simply by organized extremist groups, but by broader public acceptance of political violence as a legitimate means of achieving political goals.

Pape has warned that social media can amplify political anger, although he argues that it does not create the underlying grievances driving the phenomenon. He instead points to partisan hostility, social and demographic changes, economic pressures, and declining trust in political institutions as contributing factors.

Pape said the growing acceptance of political violence could create a cycle in which violence against one political faction is used to justify retaliation by another. While the survey indicates that most Americans do not support political violence, he argues that the size of the minority willing to justify force presents a serious concern heading into the 2026 election season.