Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are statistically tied in a potential second-round matchup in Brazil’s upcoming election, according to a new Datafolha poll released Saturday.

The survey found Bolsonaro with 46% support compared to Lula’s 45% in a hypothetical runoff, a shift from early March when Lula held a 46% to 43% advantage. Despite Bolsonaro’s slight numerical edge, the results fall within the poll’s margin of error of two percentage points, meaning the race remains effectively even.

The findings mark the first time Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, has edged ahead of Lula in a Datafolha survey, underscoring his recent rise in national polling.

Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term but has seen his earlier lead diminish in recent months. Analysts point to Bolsonaro’s growing support following a public endorsement from his father, who remains under house arrest over allegations tied to an attempted coup.

In first-round scenarios, Lula still leads when voters are asked to name candidates spontaneously. However, when respondents are presented with a list of candidates, the incumbent president falls into a statistical tie with Bolsonaro, reflecting tightening voter sentiment.

The Datafolha poll surveyed 2,004 voters across 137 municipalities between Tuesday and Thursday, offering one of the latest snapshots of a race that appears increasingly competitive as the election approaches.

The results highlight shifting political dynamics in Brazil, where the contest between Lula and Bolsonaro is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched elections in the region.