Republican super PACs have been forced to spend large sums to shore up candidates in constituencies that were once considered safely Republican.

Three Trump-aligned groups, MAGA Inc., No Going Back PAC, and the Safety and Affordability PAC have spent more than $163 million on advertising since Sept. 1. Nearly 40 percent of that total, about $63 million, has gone into states and districts President Donald Trump won by at least ten percentage points in 2024.

In Texas, Republicans expect to spend between $150 million and $200 million to defend Attorney General Ken Paxton against Democratic nominee James Talarico. The Senate Leadership Fund’s Texas super PAC alone has committed more than $100 million in television advertising. The race was rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report as of late August.

Ohio has become the most expensive Senate contest so far, with more than $307 million spent by both parties combined. Republicans have put more than $152 million behind Sen. Jon Husted in his race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. The crypto-focused Fairshake super PAC has added $30 million opposing Brown.

More than $110 million in Republican ad bookings since Aug. 1 have targeted House districts Trump carried by double digits, including the seat of Rep. Max Miller, who faces domestic-violence allegations. The Congressional Leadership Fund has scheduled a $4.85 million buy to support Miller.

In Iowa, Republicans have reserved roughly $73 million for their candidates, including Rep. Ashley Hinson. Conservative commentator Steve Deace has warned that the conflict involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz has become a major political liability in the state, comparing its unpopularity to the COVID lockdowns and the TARP bailout.

In Alaska, Republican and Trump-aligned groups have booked about $36.4 million in Senate ads compared with $21.6 million from Democrats as Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Rep. Mary Peltola. The Senate Leadership Fund has directed additional millions to Alaska, Michigan, and Iowa.

Vice President J.D. Vance has campaigned in Ohio, Iowa, Maine, Kansas, and North Carolina to support Republican candidates, including Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas, a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s.

The heavy spending in previously safe territory has left fewer resources for true toss-up races and underscores the party’s concern that several red strongholds have become competitive in the 2026 midterms.