Republican Rick Jackson leads Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms by two percentage points in Georgia’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll of 800 likely voters conducted October 12-13. The survey found Jackson receiving 49% support to Bottoms’ 47%, with 4% undecided, placing the contest within the poll’s 3.46-percentage-point margin of error.

The poll was conducted after the most recent gubernatorial debate, which Jackson did not attend. According to polling analyst Matt Towery, the results suggest his absence did not significantly affect his standing in the race.

“This survey was conducted after the most recent gubernatorial debate, which Rick Jackson was absent from. It shows that his absence from the debate had no impact on his numbers,” Towery said.

Towery also pointed to a shift among older voters toward Republican candidates in polling conducted across the country. He said the trend has become particularly noticeable in recent election cycles and is also reflected in early voting and mail-in ballot figures.

“We continue to see in our polling across the country a tremendous surge in senior voters, which we have not seen in many cycles,” Towery said. “And they have moved heavily towards the Republican candidates.”

In Georgia, however, Towery noted that Black voters showed strong participation on the first day of early voting. He said that development was consistent with his assessment that the gubernatorial contest would remain competitive, even as Jackson holds the lead in the latest survey.

The results suggest that both campaigns face a closely contested race as voting progresses. Jackson’s two-point advantage falls within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the survey does not establish a statistically clear lead for either candidate.

The poll surveyed 800 likely voters, with results weighted by age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The reported margin of error is 3.46 percentage points. Additional demographic breakdowns and topline results were expected to be released separately.