Republican Alex Mealer leads Democrat Leticia Gutierrez by six percentage points in the race for Texas’ 9th Congressional District, offering Republicans an early indication of the contest’s competitiveness following a major redrawing of the district’s boundaries.

The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 677 likely voters from Oct. 3-7 and found Mealer leading Gutierrez 48% to 42%, with 10% undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.77 percentage points.

The race is drawing attention because Texas’ 9th District was among five Democratic-held congressional seats targeted during the state’s 2025 mid-decade redistricting process. The new boundaries substantially changed the district’s composition, with only 3% of constituents in the newly drawn district having lived in the previous version represented by Democratic Rep. Al Green.

The survey showed a clear divide among voter groups. Mealer leads Gutierrez 64% to 30% among White likely voters, while Gutierrez holds a 54% to 34% advantage among Latino voters. Among Black likely voters, Gutierrez leads 69% to 15%.

Age also plays a role in the contest. Gutierrez leads among voters ages 18 to 34 by 52% to 24%, although 24% of voters in that group remain undecided. Mealer leads among voters 55 and older, 58% to 36%. Voters between 35 and 54 are closely divided, with Gutierrez at 47% and Mealer at 45%.

Mealer also holds an advantage among voters without a four-year college degree, leading 52% to 39%. Among college graduates, the candidates are essentially tied, with Mealer receiving 44% support and Gutierrez 45%.

Geography presents another divide. In Harris County, where more than four-fifths of the district’s likely voters reside, the candidates are nearly even, with Gutierrez at 45% and Mealer at 44%. In Liberty County, which accounts for slightly less than one-fifth of likely voters, Mealer leads 65% to 28%.

The poll also measured voters’ opinions of the candidates and President Donald Trump. Mealer received a favorable rating from 42% of likely voters and an unfavorable rating from 35%, while 23% said they did not know enough about her to offer an opinion. Gutierrez received a 28% favorable rating and a 33% unfavorable rating, with 39% undecided about their opinion of her.

Trump’s favorability stood at 46%, compared with 53% who viewed him unfavorably.

Although Mealer leads in the overall survey, the six-point margin falls within the poll’s margin of error, meaning the results do not establish a statistically conclusive lead. The 10% of undecided voters could also prove important as the campaign moves toward Election Day.

The University of Houston survey was conducted through text-message invitations directing respondents to an online questionnaire available in English or Spanish. Researchers adjusted the sample using demographic, historical electoral, and geographic benchmarks.