Swedes will head to the polls on Sunday in one of the closest general elections in recent memory, with the centre-left opposition bloc maintaining a slim advantage over the incumbent right-wing government and its far-right support party.

Multiple opinion polls released in the final days of the campaign show the four centre-left parties collectively at between 49.3 percent and 50.8 percent support. That range would translate to 175 to 180 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag. The three-party government coalition of Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, backed by the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, stands at 47.6 percent to 49 percent, or roughly 169 to 174 seats, according to surveys by Ipsos, Demoskop, Indikator Opinion and Novus.

The Social Democrats remain the largest single party with support in the 27.4 percent to 29.7 percent range. The Sweden Democrats follow as the biggest force on the right with 18.3 percent to 19.5 percent. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's Moderates poll between 15.8 percent and 18.3 percent.

The race has tightened considerably in recent weeks. Earlier surveys had shown the centre-left with leads of five to ten points. Recent movement has included gains for the Liberals, who cleared the 4 percent threshold needed for seats in several late polls, easing concerns that their exclusion could cost the right bloc its majority.

Key campaign issues include gang-related crime, immigration policy, the economy and national security. The current government has implemented some of Europe's stricter immigration measures, including the end of permanent residency for many refugees and increased deportations. The Sweden Democrats, who have neo-Nazi roots but have moderated their platform, have influenced policy from outside the cabinet and seek formal cabinet positions if the right bloc prevails.

Centre-left leader Magdalena Andersson, who served as prime minister from 2021 to 2022, has campaigned on higher public spending and a reversal of some right-wing policies. Early voting has been underway since late August, with millions of ballots already cast.

The outcome remains uncertain, with analysts noting that small shifts in turnout or undecided voters could determine whether Kristersson secures a second term or Andersson returns to power.