Tom Cruise’s new film Digger is tracking for a domestic opening weekend of around $20 million, an early projection that could put pressure on the $125 million production as Warner Bros. prepares for its Oct. 2 theatrical release. The tracking figure was reported by industry insider Matthew Belloni, while the film’s reported budget comes from The Numbers.

The $20 million projection represents only a fraction of the movie’s reported production cost. Even before accounting for marketing, distribution, and other expenses, an opening weekend in that range would amount to roughly 16% of the reported $125 million budget.

Digger stars Cruise as Digger Rockwell, a powerful billionaire who unleashes a catastrophic disaster and then sets out to convince the world that he can save humanity. The film is directed by Alejandro González Iñárritu, the Oscar-winning filmmaker behind Birdman and The Revenant.

The movie has an unusually high-profile cast alongside Cruise, including Riz Ahmed, Sandra Hüller, John Goodman, Jesse Plemons and Michael Stuhlbarg. It is also being released in premium formats, including IMAX, as Warner Bros. looks to give the original film a major theatrical launch.

The current tracking is not necessarily a final forecast. Box Office Pro has placed Digger in a broader $20 million to $30 million domestic opening range, meaning the movie could ultimately open above the $20 million figure currently being cited.

Still, the early numbers highlight the challenge facing an expensive original movie without the built-in audience of one of Cruise’s major franchises. Digger is not another Mission: Impossible installment or established sequel, instead pairing Cruise with Iñárritu for a dark comedy built around an original character.

The movie is also part of a broader effort to showcase Cruise outside his familiar action roles. Warner Bros. has begun an awards-season campaign surrounding his performance, while Iñárritu has described the film as a character-driven project built around Cruise.

With a reported $125 million production budget, a $20 million domestic opening would give Digger a significant financial hurdle from the start. The film will have to rely on its subsequent domestic run, international box office, and potential awards-season attention to build momentum after its Oct. 2 release.