New research suggests the pace of U.S. church closures is far less severe than some recent forecasts have suggested, with new congregations continuing to open alongside those shutting down.

A recent warning that as many as 100,000 U.S. churches could close within the next decade is facing scrutiny from researchers who track congregations nationwide. Lifeway Research found that roughly 4,000 Protestant churches closed in 2024 while about 3,800 new churches opened, resulting in a net decline of approximately 200 congregations. By comparison, 2019 saw about 4,500 closures and only 3,000 openings, while new church plantings outpaced closures in 2014.

Scott McConnell, executive director of Lifeway Research, said the numbers show that churches have demonstrated an ability to remain open even as attendance declines. The broader picture is also not uniformly negative. The Hartford Institute for Religion Research found that median weekly in-person worship attendance rose to 70 in 2025, marking the first increase in its measurement in 25 years.

The institute cautioned that the increase was uneven. Many mainline Protestant churches continued to lose members, and smaller congregations still faced difficulties. Researchers described the change as a “recalibration” rather than a broad religious revival. Separately, Pew Research Center found that about 62% of U.S. adults identified as Christian in early 2025, with the figure remaining relatively stable since 2019.

Taken together, the data point to continued challenges for American churches. Yet the current numbers show a gradual and uneven decline rather than evidence of a nationwide collapse of the kind some recent forecasts have projected.