Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers holds a strong lead in Michigan's Republican Senate primary and remains competitive against leading Democratic contenders in general election matchups, according to recent polls.

The race for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat has intensified ahead of the August 4 primaries. Incumbent Democrat Gary Peters announced he will not seek re-election, leaving a battleground opportunity for Republicans in the swing state. Rogers, who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin, dominates the GOP field. An Emerson College poll from April 11-13 showed him at 55% support among likely Republican primary voters, with the rest undecided or scattered.

On the Democratic side, the primary remains fluid. The latest Glengariff Group survey for the Detroit Regional Chamber, conducted April 17-19, had Rep. Haley Stevens at 25%, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed at 23%, and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow trailing. An Emerson poll from the same week showed El-Sayed and McMorrow tied at 24%, with Stevens at 13% and high undecideds.

General election hypotheticals underscore the GOP's position. A Glengariff poll from January 2026 had Rogers leading unnamed Democratic opponents by 6 points (48%-42%) and 3 points (46%-42%), with one matchup tied. Polling averages from 270toWin show Rogers trailing Stevens slightly (43%-45.5%) but tied with McMorrow and leading El-Sayed (45.5%-42.5%).

Republicans have invested heavily, with a super PAC committing $45 million to support Rogers earlier this month. The race is rated as a top GOP pickup chance by analysts, given Michigan's status as a narrow Trump win in recent presidential cycles.

Michigan voters will decide nominees on August 4, with the general election on November 3. Current surveys indicate Republicans are gaining momentum as Democrats sort out their primary.