A new Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll shows Republican Steve Hilton leading the crowded field to succeed Democrat Gavin Newsom as governor, signaling potential challenges for Democrats in California’s June 2 nonpartisan primary.

With more than three months until California’s primary, Hilton tops the latest survey with 17 percent support among likely voters. Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell follows with 14 percent, tied with Republican Sheriff Chad Bianco, while former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is at 10 percent and billionaire Tom Steyer at 9 percent. Undecided voters remain significant at 21 percent.

Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball noted, “The Republican electorate in California is split between Steve Hilton (38 percent) and Chad Bianco (37 percent), while Hilton also picks up a plurality of independent voter support at 22 percent. Democratic voters have not yet clearly coalesced around one candidate.”

The survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted Feb. 13–14, has a margin of error of ±3 points. Since December, the undecided voter share fell from 31 percent to 21 percent, while Hilton and Steyer each gained five points. Swalwell rose two points, Porter dropped one, and Bianco gained a point.

California’s top-two primary system allows the two highest vote-getters to advance to the November election, regardless of party. Analysts warn that the crowded Democratic field could split votes enough for two Republicans to reach the runoff.

Democratic strategists expressed concern. Data expert Paul Mitchell noted, “The risk is that no Democrat makes the runoff. If that happened, it would dramatically impact the general election.” California Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio added, “The threat is real, and there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of movement that could completely rule out the scenario of having two Republicans.”

The last Republican elected governor in California was Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, highlighting the uphill challenge Republicans face in statewide races despite early signs of competitiveness.