The U.S. national debt held by the public surpassed 100% of gross domestic product for the first time since the end of World War II, new data showed Thursday. Bureau of Economic Analysis figures placed debt at $31.27 trillion as of March 31, against nominal GDP of $31.22 trillion over the prior 12 months, for a ratio of 100.2%.

The milestone came alongside an advance estimate of first-quarter 2026 GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, up from 0.5% in the prior quarter, driven by increases in government spending, exports, and investment. Current-dollar GDP rose 5.6% in the quarter.

At the end of fiscal 2025 in September, the ratio stood at 99.5%. Total gross national debt has climbed above $39 trillion, with debt held by the public at roughly $31.27 trillion as of late April.

Historically, the debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 106% in 1946 during post-World War II demobilization before falling sharply to around 34% over the next two decades amid economic growth and fiscal surpluses. This marks only the third time the ratio has exceeded 100%, following a brief period during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Fiscal watchdogs expressed alarm. Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said the buildup stems from "a total bipartisan abdication of making hard choices," unlike the wartime necessity of the 1940s. She warned that rising debt slows income growth, raises interest rates, fuels inflation, and risks a fiscal crisis, with interest costs already surpassing Pentagon spending.

Projections paint a worsening picture. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts debt will hit 108% of GDP by 2030 and climb toward 120% over the next decade. The CRFB estimates 125% by 2036, absent policy changes, roughly twice the historical average. Stabilizing debt below 100% would require about $10 trillion in deficit reduction, such as limiting deficits to 3% of GDP.

Government spending now exceeds revenue by $1.33 for every dollar collected, fueling continued borrowing. The fiscal year 2026 deficit is projected at $1.9 trillion, or 5.8% of GDP.