Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 46% in the latest Texas Senate race polling, according to a Texas Southern University survey conducted Sept. 15-19. Libertarian Ted Brown received 3%, while 4% of likely voters remained undecided. The poll surveyed 1,800 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percentage points, putting the one-point difference within the survey's margin of error.

The Senate contest is the closest of the statewide races included in the survey and has remained highly competitive throughout the campaign. Talarico, a Democratic state representative from Austin, is challenging Paxton, the Republican attorney general, for the Senate seat being vacated by Republican Sen. John Cornyn.

The latest poll also shows some movement within the parties. While 99% of Democrats surveyed said they intended to vote for Talarico, only 84% of Republicans said they would support Paxton. 7% of Republicans said they would vote for Talarico, while 4% backed Brown and 5% were undecided.

The poll's favorability numbers also show both Senate candidates carrying significant negative ratings. Talarico was viewed favorably by 47% of respondents and unfavorably by 50%, while Paxton was viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 55%.

The governor's race remains more favorable to the Republican candidate in the survey. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45%, with Libertarian Pat Dixon receiving 2%.

Abbott is seeking another term as governor after winning reelection in 2022. Hinojosa, an Austin-area Democrat, is challenging the Republican incumbent as Democrats seek to gain control of the governor's office. The race has received increased attention because of contests over education, property taxes, data centers and other state policy issues.

Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick holds a 47% to 41% lead over Democratic state Rep. Vikki Goodwin in the lieutenant governor's race. Libertarian Anthony Cristo received 2%, while 1% backed Green Party candidate Kevin McCormick and 9% remained undecided.

The attorney general's race shows Republican Mayes Middleton leading Democrat Nathan Johnson 47% to 42%. Libertarian Tom Oxford received 2%, while 9% of voters were undecided. Middleton is seeking to succeed Paxton, while Johnson is seeking the state's top legal office in hopes to flip it to Democratic control for the first time in over 30 years.

Republican Don Huffines leads Democrat Sarah Eckhardt in the comptroller's race, 47% to 38%. Libertarian V. Alonzo Echavarria-Garza received 2%, Green Party candidate Shela Faizi received 1%, and 11% were undecided. The comptroller oversees the state's tax collection and revenue estimates and plays a major role in Texas' budget process.

The land commissioner contest shows another Republican advantage. Republican Dawn Buckingham leads Democrat Benjamin Flores 47% to 39%, with Libertarian Neill Snider at 2% and 12% undecided. The Texas General Land Office oversees millions of acres of state-owned land, along with programs involving veterans, public schools and coastal management.

Republican Nate Sheets leads Democrat Clayton Tucker 45% to 39% in the agriculture commissioner's race. Libertarian Austin Kelly received 2%, while 14% of voters were undecided. The agriculture commissioner oversees the Texas Department of Agriculture and issues involving farming, rural development, food programs and agricultural regulation.

The closest Republican lead outside the Senate and governor's contests comes in the Railroad Commission race. Republican Bo French narrowly leads Democratic state Rep. Jon Rosenthal by just two points, 44% to 42%. Libertarian Arthur DiBianca ranks at 3% with 11% of respondents undecided. The Railroad Commission regulates Texas' oil and gas industry, making the race particularly significant in a state where energy production remains a major part of the economy.

Despite maintaining a typically low profile, the race for Railroad Commission has heated up in recent weeks over remarks French made on social media. In online posts, French targeted South Asian students celebrating the University of Texas' victory over Ohio State. He wrote that he had heard UT graduation this year looked similar and added that "the problem is obviously far worse than anyone imagined."

In subsequent posts, French claimed that the internet and social media were exposing that Americans had been displaced by foreigners and went on to accuse universities of favoring non-citizens.

French doubled down on the posts, despite prominent Texas Republicans denouncing the remarks, including U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Gov. Greg Abbott. Prior to the controversy, prediction markets largely favored French to win in November. The same markets now narrowly predict Democratic Rep. Rosenthal to win the race.

Taken together, the poll shows a sharp contrast between the closely contested Senate race and the Republican leads in the rest of the statewide ballot. Talarico's one-point advantage over Paxton falls within the poll's margin of error, while Republicans lead by four to nine points in the other contests surveyed. The results are a snapshot of likely-voter preferences during the Sept. 15-19 field period, rather than a prediction of the November election outcome that is still more than 40 days away.